Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ Investor Meeting Review

Deutsche Bank analysts provided their key takeaways from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) Investor Meeting, finding management's tone to be historically bullish.

While the analysts would characterize the stock as having rekindled some interest on the long side in mid-to-late summer, their sense is that investors still view cruise more broadly as a "show me" story, with generic 2023 expectations for the group implying an exceptionally sharp ramp in earnings.

For its part, the company's management made a plausible case as to why it is confident, reiterating prior commentary that 2023 EBITDA should exceed 2019's record level. Simply stated, the company has the benefit of additional high-yielding capacity that it did not have in 2019, as well as a primarily U.S.-centric, higher-end customer base. That said, the fact remains that the company will need to move from "slightly positive" EBITDA in H2/22 to something in the range of $1.1 billion or more in H2/23.