Vail Resorts’ Upcoming Q4 Earnings Preview

Deutsche Bank analysts provided their outlook on Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) ahead of the next week’s Q4 earnings report, expecting the company to provide initial 2023 guidance, along with an update on pass sales for the upcoming ski season.

Recall that in early June, the company indicated that pass sales were up 9% in units and 11% in dollars, which reflects a 7.4% price increase partly offset by a mix shift in favor of lower-priced pass products.

The analysts believe many on the buy-side are bracing for at least slight moderation in these numbers (potentially to the mid-single-digit range on units and high-single-digit range in dollars), with some investors thinking the update could be essentially unchanged from the June release.

The analysts believe the company’s updated numbers are likely to come in better than that, however; their view is that pace likely accelerated since June and they believe passes could be up in the mid-teens range on units and up in the 10% to 12% range on dollars.

The analyst lowered their price target on the company’s shares to $286 from $301, while reiterating their hold rating.